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Debt and Taxes

Presented Fall of 2009

Presented Fall of 2008

This isn't a Credit Crisis...

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Yahoo! Stock Tracking



Fundamentals, Technicals, Politics, and Joy Global

By Dan Stewart CFA® - September 2, 2010

Yesterday was confirmed as a 90% Up Volume Day following Monday's 90% Down Volume Day and Friday's 90% Up Volume Day. That is 3 out of 4 days being 90% Volume Days. Talk about volatility. The Up Volume on the NYSE was 96% on overall volume of 4.6 billion shares.

The overall volume was heavier than Monday's sell-off, and the Up Volume was slightly stronger than Monday's Down Volume, but we still need a consistent increase in demand for the markets to go higher and break out of this trading range.

The Bulls will tell you we are in an accumulation phase before we resume higher. The Bears will tell you we are hitting lower highs and lower lows which is typical of a bear market. Is the Bull Market over and we are in fact rolling over and entering into a Bear Market phase?

All I know if the risk is elevated, and you need to be selective. The fundamentals are not good the technicals aren't great either. The one good thing going for the markets is...read more


The Cofall Curve: Why Government Spending, Public Sector Jobs Are Burden to Society

By Dan Cofall - August 23, 2010

Smaller is better…really…
If there was ever a time to make a more compelling case for smaller government, this is it.

We are in the midst of a slow motion, economic dream sequence wherein a rapidly aging work force yields declining personal consumption.  There is a virtual absence of any wage pricing power, predominantly due to the effects of globalization on a maturing economy and an education system that now ranks 14th in the world and getting worse.  Short-term deflationary pressures will tip the hand of the Fed and debt monetization will become the norm.  Property values continue to decline and taxes at all levels of government continue to decline.

Deficits are unsustainable and will soon become unserviceable if we have any hope of retaining any semblance of dollar purchasing power.
Our options are quickly diminishing but every scenario requires, at its very core, smaller government at every level.

Yet this is much more about the financial viability of the Republic as opposed to a political position.  In 1980, our national deficit was about $1T.  Today, it is in excess of $14T.  This is a GDP to national debt ratio of 1:1.  This is third world territory, at least according to the International Monetary Fund (not one of my favorite sources, however).  Both parties are responsible for this debacle. 

As our economy continues to contract, only the most “experimental” economists (“Keynesian” if you prefer) believe that increasing taxes will right the ship and increase wages and employment.  This leaves us with only Hobson’s Choices (a choice with equally negative alternatives) and each and every scenario includes shrinking government.


The Cofall CurveThe premise is equally simple and compelling. This is also timely as we feverishly debate the exponentially increasing costs of government, national debt, and deficits.

Simply, there are certain essential costs a society must bear; these costs are represented on the X-axis and are percentages of our GDP. Currently, our total federal government spending is approximately one-third of our GDP. This number exceeds 50% when you consider state, regional, and local government spending....click here to read the full article.


Hyper-Stagflation - Where we are today,
What we must go through and Where we will be

Hyper-stagflation is a condtion used to describe fixed wages due to lack of pricing power resulting from globalization combined with the devaluation of the dollar combined with rising consumption costs and higher borrowing costs. This is the economic version of the bogie-man in the basement that your parents always warned you about.

The missing link between where we are today, what we must go through and where we will be is the delta between 2010 and 2011 US Budget actual and estimates.

Estimates are for a deficit of $1.3T in 2010 rest entirely upon 2010 being a recovery year and an improvement in GDP. If this does not happen, and it does not look as if it will, budget gaps will widen, the dollar will be pressured and borrowing will become more costly. As borrowing costs increase, so will the budget gap widen further.

The Federal Reserve will become the lender of last resort.

However, until this happens, the economy will feel “normally sluggish” for a few months. Markets will be ... read more


Important Update - No Congressional Budget This Year! Are you kidding me?

This is an important article that should not be glossed over. I normally do not get too political in my blogs as I want to focus on investments. However, this will directly affect you investments in the midterm and long term.

Please read carefully and pass onto your friends. It looks like Congress is NOT going to pass a budget this year. Instead, those in charge want to "adopt" a budget enforcement resolution to control spending. Are you kidding me!??!

What this means in English is they don't want to actually clarify just how much in the hole we are and how much the deficit is soaring. I thought Congress was required to pass an annual budget and they have never gone a year without a budget. However, a traditional budget would force the ruling party to lay out their fiscal policies over the next few years. It would expose them especially before the November elections... read more

 



This Week's Show Line-Up

 
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
1st Segment
Monologue
Monologue
Monologue
Monologue
Monologue
2nd Segment

Frank Islam
CEO of Frank Islam Investment Group
& Ed Crego
Principal of CONSULT LTD

Mogambo Guru - Richard Daughty

Adam Levin
Chief executive officer, Chairman, and Founder of Credit.com and Identity Theft 911

Stephanie Link
Director of Research & VP of Strategy for TheStreet.com

J.G. Savoldi
Founder & CEO, BAM Investor (Behavioral Analysis of Markets)
3rd Segment
Timm Matthews
Editor-in-Chief of Scoreboard Monthly Magazine
Ron Ianieri - Stock Options Pooba
Frank Curzio
Editor of the Penny Stock Specialist Newsletter at Stansberry & Associates Investment Research
Steve Ruderman
Debt Grand Pooba
Michael Franzese
Family Pooba
4th Segment
Matt Gertken, China Analyst at Stratfor Global Intelligence

Monologue

Jon Najarian
Trader, CNBC market analyst and co-founder of optionMONSTER
Monologue
Michael Smith
VP Heritage Alliance
5th Segment
Dan Solin
Senior VP of Index Fund Advisors
Financial advice columnist for AOL’s Daily Finance and The Huffington Post
Chris Kacher
Founder, MoKa Author, "Trade Like an O'Neil Disciple: How we Made 18,000% on the Stock Market"
Raghuram Rajan
Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business
Honorary economic adviser to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (India)
Former Chief Economist at IMF

Dr. Yaron Brook
President and Executive Director of the Ayn Rand Institute

Toon Van Beeck
Senior Analyst at IBISWorld
6th Segment
All Skate
All Skate
All Skate

Howard Schulman
Tax Expert and CPA

All Skate




The Hire Act

Click on the image to read the entire bill.

Hire Act


Did you know that Argentina was once as powerful as America?

Watch this power point presentation for the details.

 


Dan Cofall - Host of The Wall Street Shuffle

Dan Cofall

Midwest native–turned-Texan Dan Cofall is more than a gun-loving, Federal Reserve–loathing, central bank–despising, big government–detesting, motorcycle-riding bug.
go to Dan's blog >

Dan Stewart

Dan Stewart

With years of experience in the Financial Advisor field, Dan Stewart breaks down the daily numbers of Wall Street in his unique way. He is often Dan Cofall's foil, playing devil's advocate when needed.
go to Dan's blog >

Jim Jubak

Jim Jubak

So why should you listen to this Jubak guy anyway? Experience. As you can probably tell from the photos on this site, I've got some miles on my chassis. (So, no, I'm not just another pretty face.)
go to Jim's blog >

Ron Ianieri

Just before the crash of 1987, Ron Ianieri began his options career on the floor of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange. He worked for Cooper, Neff and Associates, a highly respected technical and analytical trading ...
Go to Ron's blog >

Michael Franzese - The Wall Street Shuffle Expert

Michael Franzese

Just a few years ago, mafia boss, Michael Franzese was named one of the biggest money earners the mob had seen since Al Capone, by Vanity Fair. At the age of 35, Fortune Magazine listed ...
Go to Michael's blog >

Stephanie Link

Stephanie Link

Stephanie Link is Director of Research & VP of Strategy for TheStreet.com. and Co-Portfolio Manager for Jim Cramer's premium investing service, Action Alerts PLUS ...
Go to Stephanie's blog >

Naresh Vissa - Co-Host of The Wall Street Shuffle

Naresh Vissa

Taking Syracuse University by storm, Naresh is a third-year Renée Crown University Honors Program student....
Go to Naresh's blog >

Debt Grand Pooba

Steve Ruderman

Steve Ruderman is a professional in the debt industry. With years of experience he joins the Wall Street Shuffle team of experts every Thursday to discuss the latest in the debrt buying business....
Go to Steve's website