Archive for the ‘Author’ Category
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Bond Futures Suggest No Fear of Inflation
The 30 year bond futures set a new high for the past 4 months. This means rates are on the decline and this would not be the case, if there was a serious concern over inflation among the investment community. While there is certainly talk about the coming inflation due to the dumping of money into our economy, the bonds are not showing any signs that the inflation demon is on the horizon.
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Like a Force of Gravity
The dominant trend of a market can take over prices like a hidden force of gravity. Yesterday I mentioned that the stock market was at an important juncture. The decline of last week was large enough to bring some potential that we were approaching a ledge in prices that could cause a larger correction in the bull market that we have enjoyed for the past several months. It was nearing the make or break time in the market.
It apparently was “make” time, as the bullish trend pulled prices higher in all the indexes. This was a perfect demonstration that the dominant trend in any market should always be respected. The “trend is your friend” is not just a tired old expression. It is backed by statistics when examining price behavior.
The only problem with the market is the age of the trend in daily prices. Prices normally begin to have deeper corrections after 3-3 1/2 months of consistent rallies. The decline in early July is an example. We are nearing a period in the cycle of prices where another larger correction against trend is increasing in likelyhood.
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I’m Featured on Give Me 20’s College Student Stock Investor Profile
Want to get to know a little bit more about me? Click the link below to find out about my background, investment methods, and influences. I don’t deserve the attention, so thank Anne Meyers for giving it to me by visiting her site
http://www.giveme20.com/blog/2009/09/college-student-stock-investor-profile-naresh-vissa-age-20/
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Correction or Change in Trend?
The stock market is coming to a very important fork in the road. The Dow has fallen from its recent highs near 9,950 and has now fell back to near 9,600. Since the average daily range for the Dow is slightly over 100 points, this decline is not too severe as far as corrections go. The same can be said for the SP500 and the Nasdaq 100. What we have so far is a typical price correction in a bull market. We do not have enough evidence that the bull market has changed tends to a bearish trend.
That said this coming week may be an important week, as we continue to watch this price decline. If the Dow breaks below 9,500 this coming week, traders need to turn on their more sensitive radars and begin to watch prices more closely.
“Vertical” selling waves can sometimes be the start of a much larger correction or change in trend. So far the Dow has had down closes for three consecutive days. If this wave of selling continues, it may set up the first major reversal since the entire bull market began in March of this year. We will continue to watch the market in our daily blogs and let the Shufflers know, if they should begin to ring the register and bring in some profits from this recent bull market.
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Story of My Life’s Feature on Me
You can read a story about my background and various experiences I’ve had during my lifetime at the following website. I guess they thought I was newsworthy. I am truly flattered by the piece.
http://www.storyofmylife.com/User/user_suzy_story_view.aspx?storyId=4463&UserId=155341&ChapterId=7732
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[MSNBC] Bankrupt Hotel? Check in with Caution
With so many lodgings going under the last year, this article addresses some issues within the hotel industry and also provides tips for you to protect yourself during your travel.
It also does not hurt that I’m quoted in it!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32805864/ns/travel-tips/
By Christopher ElliottTravel columnistmsnbc.com contributorupdated 10:54 a.m. ET, Mon., Sept . 14, 2009From the outside, the Puerto Rican inn that Pablo Solomon checked into looked like it belonged on the cover of a slick vacation brochure. The landscaping seemed immaculate, the lawn was freshly trimmed, and the pool an inviting shade of blue.
He paid no attention to the “for sale” sign out front. But he should have.
“It was a disaster,” remembers Solomon, an artist who lives in Lampasas, Tex. “The staff knew their days were numbered and just did not care. Nothing worked and everything was dirty. There were bugs. We found out later that the exterior looked nice only because an outside company did the maintenance.”
A record number of hotels are thought to be in foreclosure, meaning that Solomon is in good company. (No one appears to keep reliable records on a nationwide basis.) One industry-watcher estimated that as many as 10,000 properties are at risk — that’s roughly 1 in every 5 hotels.
Most resorts don’t advertise their impending shutdown. “Hotels in foreclosure are very secretive about it,” says Aliya Jiwa, a Dubai-based hotel investment analyst. “There are absolutely immaculate hotels that are in foreclosure, and no one would know.”
Which brings us to the first — and perhaps the most obvious — tip-off that a hotel is in trouble. “If you see a for sale sign on your hotel,” says Solomon, “run.”
Beyond that, how do you make the most of a visit to an almost-bankrupt hotel? Here’s how to spot a property and what to do if you find yourself checking into one:
1. Is the place falling apart? Most hotels on the brink have lost their ability to repay their loans, so they can’t cover their operating costs. As a result, rooms and public areas become neglected. “Hotels need to refurbish or renovate every three years or so to maintain a good aesthetic appearance and keep their flag,” says Jiwa, the hotel analyst. (A flag is a hotel’s brand.) “When you see public areas like the lobby in need of some updating or rooms that are dilapidated — stained carpet, chipped tables, cracked bathroom tiles — then this is a sign that a hotel is financial trouble.” It doesn’t always mean the hotel is in foreclosure. Sometimes, it just means it’s a badly-run hotel. Either way, it’s not a good sign, and you should check out as soon as you’re able.
2. Was the price you paid too good to be true? Amazing lodging bargains sometimes have a high price. You may be checking into a hotel that’s on its way out, according to Melinda Crump, a spokeswoman for Sageworks, which conducts financial analysis for private companies, including hotels. “For some, it may be a welcome opportunity to conserve cash,” she says. “But for others who are looking for a premier hotel experience, it may be a nightmare.” If a bank is forced to operate a hotel while waiting for a buyer, the hotel will probably be understaffed. That means the rooms won’t get cleaned as often, the hotel operator won’t answer the phone after a few rings (if at all) and room service will take forever. One way to find these troubled hotels is online (just type the name of the property and “review” and you’ll pull up a lot of helpful information). If the resort’s ratings are in the toilet, then the low rate it’s offering may be no bargain. You might want to look elsewhere.
3. See a lot of new faces? If there’s a new general manager and none of the staff look familiar to you, it could be a sign that the property has problems. “There can be an abrupt shift in personnel if the lender or creditor seeks to put a property management company in charge of the property,” says Travis Miller, chief mediation officer with Wisconsin Loss Mitigation, which helps hotels and other commercial properties reorganize their debts. New staff also doesn’t immediately understand the needs of the property and its long-time guests. Learning the ropes takes some time. If you’ve been visiting a hotel year after year and suddenly the staff changes, you might want to take your business elsewhere. At least until the new people find their bearings. Unless, of course, you want to turn your vacation into a learning opportunity for the brand-new staff. Yeah, neither do I.
4. Is the hotel cutting corners? Once the owner knows the property will be lost, there’s typically a deliberate effort to not invest any resources in it — and often an attempt to squeeze all possible resources from it, according to Shari Olefson, an attorney with the Fort Lauderdale
, Fla., law firm Fowler White Boggs, and who is currently foreclosing on a hotel.“For example, it is not unusual for owners to remove any furniture or equipment that they can remove without being obvious, or to divert certain orders, like food or linens, for resale,” she says. A careful guest might have known about the hotel’s problem by looking up the property’s legal description in the county’s records. That’s hardly practical. But the extreme cost-cutting, which in Olefson’s hotel included firing most of the cleaning staff “and replacing them with illegals” would have been the tip-off. When you see that, it’s time to move on to another hotel — or go home.
5. Hey, where’d everyone go? In a few cases, the hotel can close down suddenly, and without warning. “If the financial issues are extreme or the borrower and lender are really feuding, the hotel could be closed at any time, without much notice to the guest,” warns Suzanne Amaducci-Adams, a partner and hospitality industry expert at the Miami law firm Bilzin Sumberg Baena Price & Axelrod. What’s happening behind the scenes? It would take another column to explain everything, but Amaducci-Adams says there’s so much wrangling between various parties, titles and licenses — almost all of it unseen to the guest — that a lot can get overlooked. If there’s a litmus test for an imminent closure, or foreclosure, it might be the paintings and sculptures. “Personal property like art work could disappear from the lobby,” she says. Perhaps that’s a useful litmus test: If the artwork disappears, maybe you should, too.
The good news? Once a hotel emerges from foreclosure under new ownership, the deals may last — for a while. “In some cases, we saw hotels coming out of their foreclosure position by actually adopting rock-bottom prices,” says Jean Francois Mourier of RevPar Guru, a company that develops revenue management applications for hotels. In other words, there may be some short-term benefits to you even after a foreclosure.
Not all foreclosure hotel visits are negative, though. Some hotels actually do what they’re trained to do, even during tough times: They offer outstanding service at a reasonable price.
That’s what Naresh Vissa found when he stayed at a bankrupt extended-stay hotel in Dallas recently. “I had nothing but a fine service experience there,” he remembers. “I believe they cut down on the number of times per week they cleaned my room and set my bed, but the service was there when I needed it.”
Here’s hoping all of your bankrupt hotel stays are that good.
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Start Managing Your Finances Before You’re In Over Your Head
Personal savings is the key to financial prosperity. Had we been saving all these years, we would not be in our current economic state. People made bad decisions with their money by spending beyond their means. Banks made egregious choices with other people’s wealth by encouraging them to live past their standards.
In economics, there is an accounting identity, where savings equals investment. The money available at your disposable serves as an asset to future investment. Spendthrifts may not be able to afford that new television set or PS3. By constantly spending, you will not be able to create much wealth because you will not have the necessary capital to produce innovative ideas in your head. In other words, you will find yourself living from paycheck to paycheck.
The best way to make money is to make it work for you. Invest in yourself. Open a CD at your bank so you can start saving for the future. Spend on automation or technology that can increase your productivity or networking ability. Take classes in web design, finance or the sciences to stimulate your mind.
Use www.mint.com to track all your credit/debit card purchases. At the site, set a budget for various categories, such as food, leisure and groceries. This is a good way to track spending. Start practicing now, so you will be better prepared when living on your own in the future.
There are great ways to invest in yourself and make money at the same time. Become a note-taker. Most classes at universities ask a student to submit notes on a weekly basis for students with disabilities. Doing this would force you to pay close attention to lecture material. The only time-commitment you would have is making the walk to drop off your notes (I was actually fired from my only note-taking position because of terrible handwriting).
Seek positions around campus. Share your knowledge and wisdom by becoming a tutor. Try to find something in marketing. Regardless what you end up doing in life, sales is the backbone of any business. Life is a sales call.
Students typically receive their financial aid package prior to their first year. If you are a sophomore or junior, you should contact the Office of Financial Aid to revisit your package. Circumstances have changed for many families over the past year.
“The financial aid office is always open to reevaluating your package,” says Contributing Personal Finance Editor at Seventeen Magazine Farnoosh Torabi. “Schools have set aside emergency money in this recession anticipating that parents will be contacting them at some point during the school year.”
Even if you have a solid financial aid package with scholarship money, the most expensive cost in college is tuition. Take school seriously. Major in a subject that motivates you to get up every morning. The worst thing you can do is study an area you detest, because you will end up skipping classes and cramming for exams.
“Only 40% of students nationwide graduate in four years,” says Torabi.
You do not want to stay an extra year to finish school because of a poor academic standing. That money could be saved – and invested – elsewhere.
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CURBING COLLEGE EXPENSES: Save and Spend Wisely
Welcome, Class of 2013. You have made a good decision to attend college. The U.S. government has poured trillions of dollars into physical capital but not enough into the most important capital of a society: human capital. By investing years in a college education, you are increasing intellectual capacity and, therefore, preparing yourself to be a productive member of the country.
Reading this post is a wise idea. I will try my best to share tips on business and financial issues, so that you can take control of your freedoms and stave off stress caused by economic downturn. My goal is to help you navigate your future. Most people are scared of this so-called “real world,” but it is not as daunting as you think it may be.
It is the first month of school, and the expenses are already adding up. You are probably wondering how you are going to make it through the year.
You won’t even open half the textbooks your professors claim you need. Find out from students who previously took the course whether the textbook is necessary. Trading textbooks with friends is the best way to save some cash.
“Every course requires the professor to provide the book at the school library for free,” said Farnoosh Torabi, contributing editor at Seventeen magazine.
School bookstores sell new and used books at unfavorable prices. Check out www.campusbooks.com and www.DealOz.com for the best deals. The websites filter all the major discount sites (eBay, Amazon.com, etc.) and find you the most affordable prices. On average, I end up paying approximately a quarter of the price I would have paid at the bookstore.
You may need your books the first few weeks of school, but buy them at the bookstore with the intent of returning them on the last day, so you’ll be able to get a full refund. That way you have them while your on-line purchases are being shipped. Do not tamper with shrink-wrapped items, as the bookstore will not accept was that are opened.
Universities charge unreasonable rates for meal plans. But when you look at how many meals you actually eat every week, you will find that many go unused. Find ways to use those unused meals – maybe they can be converted into credit at the local supermarket?
Stay tuned for more tips!
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Last Look McDonalds (MCD)
As investors build a portfolio, they must put their stock selections into a context of the stock’s individual trend as well as the stocks relative strength versus the SP500 or Nasdaq. You want to compare your stock in relation to the big engines. I have followed MCD now for several consecutive days to highlight the importance of this analysis.
I had mentioned that McDonalds MCD was not acting well as an individual stock when it was compared to the market as a whole. The stock indexes were rising, but McDonalds was hovering near its recent lows. I said in my blogs to watch the stock and see what happens if the entire market takes a breather and sets back a bit. The theory is that, if the stock cannot go up while the whole market is in a rally mode, what do you think the stock will do, if the whole market declines?
MCD set a new low on Friday and was down again today. Now we may see a small bounce over the next few days just to correct this recent decline, but the fall in the price of the stock is a clear picture of what can happen if you ignore individual stock relative strength when building a portfolio. I just thought you may have wanted to gain a little more incite into stock selection, as you learn how to take control of your own financial empire.
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Keep Watching McDonalds (MCD)
Yesterday I mentioned that McDonalds was demonstrating poor relative strength when this stock was compared to the SP500 “big engine” and that a decline in that stock was probable, in the event the entire stock market declined. The theory is that if a stock cannot rally when the entire stock market is advancing, what do you think the stock will do, if the entire stock market begins to fall?
The dow was down a bit today to stop the recent advance and McDonalds (MCD) set a new low for the past 3 months. Traders Country Club was created to educate new investors in how to trade the markets with a proper perspective and analysis. If the stock market corrects further next week, watch MCD. Learn how to avoid the “dogs of the dow”.
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