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The 30 year bond futures have broken below the lows of the past few weeks and this may be the start of a bigger decline ahead. As bond futures fall, rates increase. Watch the next rally in both the 30 year bonds USZ09 and the Ten Year Noteas TYZ09. If the next rally in unsable to move above the high of the previous 3 days, then we may be in store for a more serious decline later this month. Active traders should be on alert for potential shorts in these markets.
A severe correction in the equity market may prevent a market fall in the bonds or notes, but so far there has been nothing but an incredible rally in the equity markets. Combine this with higher commodity prices to instill a fear of inflation and you get a depressed bond market in the futures markets. What we do in the futures markets in the bonds and notes the next few days may set up a trend that will last for several weeks.
Crude oil has moved back above the $73.00 level and natural gas has now retouched the $5.00 level. By itself this move is not significant, but there are other commodities which are also reaching upper price levels that suggests that a bull market may be ahead.
Soybeans has blasted off from its lows like a roman candle and the corn and wheat markets have also enjoyed a very strong rally recently. All of these markets should be watched very closely over the next few weeks. If they all hold near current price levels in the days ahead, this will be a sign that buyers are stepping in and willing to support every minor price decline or correction. Small corrections after a significant price rise is a sign of a change in momentum. If strong buyers are followed by weak sellers, this is a set up for an additional rally. This is what we have in the grain markets and the energy markets. We have had a nice rally recently. Now let us see if aggressive sellers are absent in the next decline.
Why do I suggest that traders watch the physical commodities? Baker Hughes (BHI) just set a new high for 2009. So did Schlumberger (SLB). These bull markets are beginning to catch investor attention. If the energy markets find a base, this will help these two stocks.
Want an ETF to watch over the next few weeks? Watch DBA. Power Shares Agricultural. If the grains continue to establish a bullish scenario in the futures markets, this will help this ETF find a new bullish footing. A close below $25.00 in DBA cancels this view, but watch this ETF over time. If you see the next down move is greatly diminished and has the appearance of lack of selling interest, this will set up the potential for a bullish price run later in the month. I will watch this for the Shufflers and keep you up to date on the progress.
While the stock markets all rallied in a fit of enthusiasm for the bull market, other markets continued with their trends as well. Gold breached the $1,060 level for the December Futures contract and the dollar index set a new low for the year. Just what we needed, as other countries are having closed door meetings about whether the US dollar should continue to be the world’s benchmark.
Now I can’t imagine why the world would be nervous about our future stability. I know we have record single year deficits and future exposure of tens of trillions of dollars, but we have the best and the brightest working to solve these problems. No I am sorry I may be wrong about that. The world’s greatest generation is retiring. They are buying up cheap condos in Boca Raton, Florida. They are getting fitted for golf clubs and tennis shoes. They are saying the hell with it and hunkering down.
The generation in charge is clueless about what to do. They would rather keep being elected than solving a problem. They would tell their ten year old the way to solve a debt problem is to first quit spending, but then tell their voters what is needed is a trillion dollar stimulus package. This isn’t a political statement! Both parties have driven this country into the ground and we are at the edge of the cliff on whether we can suitably recover from this mess. This is why meetings about the future of the US are taking place around the world. They see what we all see – a Washington leadership that is incapable of functioning at every level.
So what do we do as investors and active traders in this environment? Learn how to manage your own funds and trade the trends before you. In the next few weeks, Traders Country Club will be making some important announcements to make sure the Shufflers are ready to take the reigns and control their own nest egg. Besides, when it is our turn, we want to make sure we all can enjoy the Florida sun and be on the back nine before noon.
The most successful people are not the ones with the 4.0 GPAs. If that were the case, George Bush, a lifelong “C” student, would’ve never become President.
Albert Einstein’s IQ was around 150. Christopher Langan’s is well past that – so high the tests cannot even give him an accurate score.
Yet you’ve probably never heard of Chris Langan. After working as a bouncer in Long Island for more than 20 years, the world’s smartest man is a farmer who spends his free time writing about his “Theory of Everything,” proving the existence of God, the soul and afterlife through mathematical algorithms.
“Coming from the inheritance business counts more than most people think it does,” Langan said from his rural Missouri horse ranch. “Credentials and connections are important to the achievements of material success.”
To protect his younger brothers from his abusive father, Langan worked out and literally punched his dad out of the house when he was 16. His life was filled with poverty and sheer bad luck. No matter how brilliant he may be, Langan is the antithesis of the rags-to-riches American Dream.
“I’m a product of my lower-class upbringing,” Langan said. “I got disgusted with immoral materialism and tendencies to let self interest run away with truth and injustice.”
Nevertheless, the man is beyond genius. His research and theories are logically idealistic, but nobody will publish them because he has no record of accomplishment or professional affiliation.
Langan wants to work at Syracuse University and now the university should take this opportunity to work with him to bring his studies and ideals to benefit the students. Let SU be the first to give Chris Langan the break he’s been waiting for his entire life.
“I would love a position incorporating philosophy and math at Syracuse University,” Langan said. “I would accept if I could teach exactly what I want and if it didn’t involve me living in Syracuse the entire year. I’d love to explain my work to the administration.”
Langan was not privileged enough to receive a proper education yet he still aced all his tests, proving the definition of success extends beyond the transcripts. His story is chronicled in Malcolm Gladwell’s bestselling work OUTLIERS: The Story of Success. In the book, Gladwell stresses that opportunities and hours of practice at a specific craft (10,000 to be precise) make people flourish. Gladwell says Bill Gates would have never revolutionized the world if he didn’t have the chance to sneak out of his house every night to program computers at the University of Washington as a high school student.
By attending SU, you are much closer to Bill Gates than you are to Chris Langan on the potential success pendulum. You are part of a community that will train you for your future. Take advantage of your time here. Find your passions and get good at them. In my next post, I’ll discuss the story of two alumni who used their Syracuse education to help them rise to the top of their fields.
Well the market is beginning to heat up. There is plenty of debt on the market for sale. As we discussed on the October 1st show, credit card volume was up to more than $100 billion in losses. We mentioned other consumer products doubled that amount.
There have been some very large debt sales of consumer services in recent months that include wireless telecommunication,utilities (gas, electricity and water) and others. The good news is prices are the lowest they have been since the early 1990’s.
Yes, the economy is slow and unemployment is up, but remember the pricing is based on the expected returns in today’s economic conditions. When the economy starts to recover, the returns that are projected over a 3 year time line will begin to climb, exceeding the expected return.
I believe there is a window of opportunity. How long that window remains open is still in question, however I do not believe it will remain open beyond the first quarter of 2009.
Has the stock market made you feel confident in our future? Are all our problems in the past? Has the current administration made a change the whole world can believe in? There is a commodity that suggests the answer is NO.
Gold has set a new recent high and now approaches the $1,060 barrier overhead. The continued interest in gold is not a good sign for our financial situation. Imagine a one ounce rock and understand there are individuals, by the millions, who are willing to pay over $1,000 in US dollars for that rock, rather than hold US dollars.
Stocks are indeed making a strong and continuous bull market run, even though corrections are beginning to occur more frequently. However, do not feel completely comfortable. As long as there is a continued strong interest in gold versus other assets, there is some fools gold out there. Whether it is the fools who are paying $1,000 an ounce for the rock or the fools who are believing in this stock market rally only time will tell.
PLEASE NOTE THE SUBJECT OF THIS SERIES IS NOT MY CURRENT BOSS, DAN COFALL. DAN COFALL IS THE ANTITHESIS OF THE BOSS I HAD IN “MEMOIRS OF AN INTERN.”
The real world can be dirty. It took 70 years for Bernie Madoff to teach us that those closest ones are the ones who’ll try to screw you over. No matter what those around you may be doing, you should always do the right thing.
“At some point, even the most methodical scammer will make a mistake,” president of the business intelligence firm Corporate Resolutions and former special agent at the Federal Bureau of Investigation Ken Springer said. “My favorite expression is past history is indicative of future performance.”
I looked up to my boss like a father. Several red flags should have gone up before and during my internship. He begged me to remove content on a website that “inaccurately” portrayed his past negatively. I put him in touch with a computer whiz friend of mine who helped him eliminate the information and further optimize his search results. Finally, he said he would pay me off the books, meaning no formal records would be kept. He showed shady signs from the start, but I ignored them. All I knew about were his frequent media appearances and high net-worth clientele.
“When doing business with someone, you need to conduct your own independent research,” Springer said. “It’s not about going on the Internet to get instant answers. Do not make decisions just because it looks good on paper.”
If my boss was unhappy with my work at any point during my internship, he should have fired me. By keeping me around, he was legally bound to paying me the wages we agreed to. I took screenshots of every e-mail and Facebook exchange we had in addition to pictures of text messages. I did my due diligence a month too late.
In response to my letter, my boss left me profane and vulgar voicemails that prompted me to de-friend him on Facebook. I hunted down his hotshot attorney and told him how much I was claiming. He seemed apathetic to the amount. Minutes after the conversation, I received a text from my boss saying not to call his attorney and that he’d mail me my check.
Two days ago, more than two months after my internship, I finally received a check that was off the books. It was a quarter of the amount I am owed; it was filled out in different pens, and the “for/memo” line was blank. The date on the check was also two weeks behind the date the envelope was postmarked. My boss continues to leave voicemails, threatening my future employment and saying he has made calls to Syracuse about me. He continues to stress that I have no idea the reach he has in places where nobody would want him to be and that he will file a lawsuit against me for fraud for not delivering results he was looking for.
I’m sharing this story because in the current economy, the scammers are coming out. People will do anything to save a buck. You need to watch out for yourself, especially if you plan to work or intern at a smaller firm.
“Schools should implement guidelines before a company can solicit interns and should get feedback from the student during and afterwards to assess the benefit to the school for future internships,” Springer said.
It’s pathetic for a 50-year-old top executive to attack a 20-year-old intern. I got him on the FOX Business Channel and a nationally syndicated radio show. I wrote content for his new website. Now, I’m giving him print exposure and contemplating posting his voicemails on YouTube.
“Media lead time takes months,” said Bob Newman, president of Newman Communications, a leading talent management firm. “That’s why interns should be shadowing and doing research. I tell every client not to depend on us to get famous and that we don’t guarantee anything.”
The Joker in The Dark Knight said, “You can’t rely on anyone these days. You have to do everything yourself.”
My boss once told me to stop with the Obama stuff and become more of a capitalist.
Thanks for the advice, boss. I’ll see you in court.
PLEASE NOTE THE SUBJECT OF THIS SERIES IS NOT MY CURRENT BOSS, DAN COFALL. DAN COFALL IS THE ANTITHESIS OF THE BOSS I HAD IN “MEMOIRS OF AN INTERN.”
Note: I actually sent this letter to my boss, but it has been edited down here to protect sensitive information.
Dear Boss,
I simply do not understand why you have failed to pay my agreed upon wages for the services I rendered this summer as an intern with you and your firm. I arrived at work on time every day. I worked as diligently as I could to accomplish the tasks that were assigned to me. I had excellent working relationships with you and your team.
Your partner paid his share on a timely basis. At the end of each of the first two weeks, he left me checks. He explicitly stated he had “limited resources,” yet he understood I showed up every day.
You stated at the end of both weeks one and two that you would give me a check. I never received anything.
Prior to the start of my internship, we agreed on $b a week ($y/day). Your partner gave me $c. I am now owed $x, and you even agreed and acknowledged you owed me this amount on public Facebook postings, text messages, e-mail exchanges and in person.
On several occasions, you indicated you would mail my payment “immediately.” Coming up on two months after the fact, I have yet to receive any payment. These are not disputable facts.
After I quit work, I did my own due diligence to protect myself from situations like this. When I was home, I gathered many facts. I talked to people who know you very well or did business with you in the past. I have records of all our electronic communications. Before I left for school, I met with an attorney to prepare myself just in case things became unfavorable.
Now, we have arrived at a very uncomfortable point. You have indicated you do not want to pay the wages we agreed to. You leave me very few options.
I should have received these wages at the end of every week I worked. At the very least, I should have collected them upon the conclusion of my work. It is completely unjustifiable to continue to withhold or negotiate these wages with me.
Though this is a very small amount of money to you, I am a college student and my internship income is essential to me in order to pay for my books, living and other expenses. You have put me in a very difficult financial position.
May I ask that you send me a check for $x today? If you cannot or will not do this, I will have no choice but to seek a legal solution through the local small claims court. I will also pursue this issue with the proper agencies.
I hope you understand this is not a route I would normally choose, but you have delayed paying me. Should I not receive full payment of $x by [specified date], I will have no choice but to pursue legal action. This seems like such a small and insignificant amount of money for services that I clearly rendered.
Yours Truly,
Naresh Vissa
PLEASE NOTE THE SUBJECT OF THIS SERIES IS NOT MY CURRENT BOSS, DAN COFALL. DAN COFALL IS THE ANTITHESIS OF THE BOSS I HAD IN “MEMOIRS OF AN INTERN.”
This past summer, I packed my stuff and moved to another city to work an internship for an investment management company. I lived in a bankrupt Extended Stay Hotel, worked long hours and tried my best to do what I was asked. My boss and I agreed on a weekly wage.
After the second week of work, I developed bags under my eyes and was losing hair on my head. My main task was to get my boss and his partner’s clients national publicity. They wanted to be on channels like Discovery, FOX, Bloomberg and Howard Stern. Clients varied, from a plastic surgeon to financial expert. They gave me a phone and asked me to make things happen.
“HR in most investment firms is simply a transactional function,” said Peter Cappelli, Director of the Center for Human Resources at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “Get people in and get them out without breaking the law. They don’t do organizational development, training or job design.”
No proper training was provided. I had no problem with that, because I am entrepreneurial, but PR IS BRUTAL! The industry is all about whom you know. Forget about press releases, email marketing campaigns, CRM software and phone pitches. You need to have an in, and I didn’t have anything. I called mentors, Syracuse alumni, anyone and everyone, and I had nothing to show.
After the second week, two of the partners came into my office and said they were disappointed with how much time they spent teaching me the business. I told them from the start I was a 20-year-old intern. PR is brand new to me. It’s going to take some time.
The pressure built up. I wasn’t getting any responses from any producers or journalists. I became desperate. I was at the point I was going to beg people for things.
So I quit. My supervisors hoped I could take their clients national. I told them not to depend on me. They should rather dole out six grand a month for a PR firm and see the results. At the end, I didn’t want to waste their time, energy and money.
If there’s one thing I can take away from this, it’s make sure you love what you do. The worst feeling in the world is to wake up every morning and dread going to work.
The PR profession is tough stuff. If you don’t know anybody and don’t have the proper training or software to aid your work, you’re going to find yourself going nowhere.
It sucks, but I did what was best for everyone. I could have finished my term there, gotten no results and collected an extra stash of cash. Nevertheless, I felt that wasn’t even worth it.
But that’s not why I’m sharing this story. My internship really started after I quit. Up until that point, I did not get a single payment from my boss. Whether I lived up to expectations or not, I was owed money for showing up every morning and trying my best to produce results. I was supposed to get a check in my mail after returning home. After weeks of reminding my boss, it never came.
Next edition, I’ll discuss how I received the money I was owed.
Believe me – it was much more brutal than losing half a head of hair.
My last post reminded our Shufflers that we had to look at the market with a bullish bias, but the age of the bull market was about to become a factor. Trends always have corrections as they progress. During the early life of the trend, many corrections are 2-4 days and relatively small, as traders and investors come into the market and buy small dips to keep the bull market alive. After 3 months of this type of buying, there is a time when a deeper correction occurs. Buyers simply step aside and are more cautious about their purchases. This occurred in July of this year.
We are now under the same market condition. The deeper correction that you are now seeing is “typical” for this stage of trend. A complex correction is the likely outcome over the next week or so. How deep will the correction be? This depends upon the news and financial outlook that develops over the next few weeks of course, but traders should expect many up and down days. The vertical rally is over for now.
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